Results matter

Posted by Santh

When we think about athletics, the sprinter who is likely to come to our mind is Usain Bolt, even a year after he retired from the track. He is widely considered to be the greatest sprinter of all time having won the 100 m, 200 m and 4 × 100 m relay at three consecutive Olympic Games. It is an amazing conversion ratio of 100% that makes him the greatest among the greats!

Being an Indian, I need to give some examples from cricket and am glad to be writing this blog post at a time when Indian cricket is in ascendency for more than a decade. What would be some of the most famous moments in Indian cricket? Lovers of Test cricket will mention the magnificent VVS Laxman Kolkata innings of 281 against Australia in 2001, followers of one day cricket will remember the first World Cup win of 1983 or the last one of 2011 based on the generation they belong, Sachin Tendulkar fans will recollect Sharjah innings from 1998 and MS Dhoni supporters will vouch for his leadership skills citing the inaugural T20 world cup win in 2007. Now, what is common across all these reminiscences? – the RESULT!

Imagine how we will remember the same individuals or events if:

  • Usain Bolt missed winning some of these events due to false starts or petty illness like fever, cold or upset stomach.
  • Despite Sachin’s genius innings, India failed to cross the finish line in Sharjah 1998 finals as it happened the very next year in a Test match at Chennai
  • Sreesanth failed to cling on to Misbah-ul-Haq’s scoop over short fine leg during the T20 finals.

In sports as in any aspect of life, there is always an element of chance or luck that determines the final outcome. So, how does luck work? I found this statement from Garry Kasparov’s “Deep Thinking” about luck to be apt: “In nearly any competitive endeavor, you have to be damned good before luck can be of any use to you at all”.

And I am a believer of this quote by Roald Amundsen, a Norwegian explorer who led the first Antarctic expedition to reach the South Pole in 1911: “Victory awaits him who has everything in order — luck, people call it. Defeat is certain for him who has neglected to take the necessary precautions in time; this is called bad luck”.

When we don’t achieve the best possible results, there is always a reason – I call it an excuse. Some people look outwards and attribute any failure to other people or external factors while they did not do their job well enough BUT readily look inwards to attribute all success to themselves though they did not contribute sufficiently! They forget that people around them will be aware of the reality and will not respect them for such actions. Even if they may get away with such irresponsible behavior in the near term, they will be held accountable in the long term. And the longer they manage to get away, the greater the downfall will be!

Jim Collins in his book “Good to Great” attributes success of organizations to Level 5 leadership and says “Level 5 leaders look out the window to attribute success to factors other than themselves. When things go poorly, however, they look in the mirror and blame themselves, taking full responsibility“.

Overall, I have learnt that:

  • Diligent planning and flawless execution are essential to achieve great results.
  • When expected results are not delivered, first ask if we have done everything within our control. In my several years of several failures, I was always able to find something that I could have done differently to increase the chances for success. This learning helped me improve and produce better results in future.
  • Avoid attributing lack of results to external factors. Though we may feel justified, we will come across as someone unwilling to take responsibility for our outcomes. And multiple such occurrences will lead to our losing respect and trust.
  • Many environments today reward effort even when results are not achieved. This will encourage mediocrity and lead to an environment that does not produce required results as people will limit themselves to spending long inefficient hours and expect rewards for the time spent.
  • While EFFORTS are important, it is RESULTS that ultimately matters. Appreciate effort but hold people accountable for results!

Options Thinking & The Last Responsible Moment

Posted by Santh

As intelligent humans with mental faculties honed by years of training and experience, we subconsciously know the good from the bad. We usually make good decisions in line with our long term goals. But there are times when we regret our decisions – for either making or NOT making them. It can be related to an investment or a property or a job switch or so many other things in life. We learn from our mistakes and get better. In the process, we update our mental models to assess situations better and make smarter decisions in the future.

In this blog post, I will share my understanding of two tools from Mary & Tom Poppendieck’s “Lean Software Development: An Agile Toolkit”. They are “Options Thinking” and “The Last Responsible Moment”. While the book is focused on software development, these two tools form a potent combination that can help us analyze situations objectively and make decisions that are aligned to any goals in our life.

Lets start with some definitions:

  • Option (in financial domain) – A contract that offers the buyer the right, but not the obligation, to buy or sell the underlying asset at an agreed-upon price during a certain period of time or on a specific date (https://www.investopedia.com)
  • Last Responsible Moment – The instant in which the cost of the delay of a decision surpasses the benefit of delay; or the moment when failing to take a decision eliminates an important alternative (https://www.leanconstruction.org)

While option has a similar (and simpler) English definition, I chose to use the definition from my professional domain, as it  highlights the right vs obligation connotation. And we buy a financial option by paying a premium.

There are several situations that highlight options thinking:

  • Book non-refundable airline tickets at a lower price OR book relatively expensive ones that provide an option to cancel later
  • Reserve hotel rooms at lower rates by paying the entire non-refundable amount upfront OR reserve at higher rates by just providing a valid credit card number with an option to cancel till a cut-off period without incurring any expense
  • An Indian software company that expects US Dollar receivables from clients in the future can encash the proceeds at prevailing exchange rates when it receives them OR hedge against possible future rupee appreciation by buying FX options after paying a premium

In all these cases, the choices in italics are more economical BUT we are committed to them. The price difference between them and the relatively expensive alternatives is the cost of delaying the decision. For example – if we need to cancel our travel, the non-refundable ticket will result in a much bigger loss than the one with cancel option. And one such need to cancel might wipe out all the savings we accumulated over several years by diligently selecting the choice without options!

Does it mean the more expensive alternatives completely protect us from a loss given we have paid a premium? NO. Imagine our travel plan changed but we forgot to cancel the hotel reservation before the cut-off time, then we will be charged for one night. Or Indian Rupee appreciated by 15% against the US Dollar and the FX Option is in the money but the company forgot to exercise it before the expiry date, then the option becomes worthless. These crucial moments when an alternative is eliminated will be the Last Responsible Moment.

So, this is what I have learnt about the process of making decisions that we will not regret later:

  • Set our vision and goals – Different individuals have different priorities and what is important for one need not be the same for another. So, we need to set our own vision based on what we want to achieve in life and define our goals appropriately. This will create clear guiding principles for us and help avoid distractions caused by ubiquitous marketers and ill-intentioned well-wishers.
  • Understand the situation and list out the alternatives – It can take anywhere between a few seconds to several days to identify all possible alternatives that are aligned to our vision. The time it takes depends on the time we have to decide and the amount of learning we need to go through to fully understand the situation. We should avoid going with our gut feel as I have already explained that our gut feel need not necessarily deliver the best results.
  • Decide as late as possible – This is where options thinking comes into play. Some alternatives might appear more expensive in the beginning. But as we progress, we might realize that the cheaper one cannot deliver the required results but will hurt our reputation or even cost our job. It does not mean the costlier alternatives are always the best! It all depends on the situation and we need to decide after analysis if it will be worthwhile to keep our options open by paying a premium.
  • Make the decision – Keeping our options open should not result in analysis paralysis. We should always be cognizant of the last responsible moment and make our decision before we lose the potentially best alternative.

Finally, I see some people NOT wanting to deal with this complexity at all and just go with the flow. This is essentially favoring status quo and might appear to work some times. Remember, the leaders who create history are the ones who take risks and challenge the status quo instead of just going with the flow. If we expect time to automatically provide a solution, we will not be a leader and will likely be letting some one else decide for us!

Net-net, if we want to be a futuristic leader, we cannot just wait for time to provide a magical solution. We need to actively analyze situations to come up with alternatives in line with our vision, keep our options open and decide at the right time!

Let them figure out

Posted by Santh

As a parent or a manager or even an individual, we become leaders and make decisions from time to time. There are different leadership styles to deal with situations and these two quotes drive my philosophy:

  • Give a man a fish and you feed him for a day. Teach a man to fish and you feed him for a lifetime.
  • That which does not kill us makes us stronger – Friedrich Nietzsche

These quotes are in conflict with the widely prevalent leadership style of being over-protective. Being over-protective gives the leader an illusion of control as the leader tends to make most of the decisions. And the team feels happy about having a strong leader who will always back them up irrespective of the situation. And it is more appealing when you consider the possibility of hero worship!

But there are several pitfalls for the team. Teams that are led by over-protective leaders tend to:

  • Be perennially dependent on the leader and cannot act independently
  • Think they will be backed up even if they make mistakes and become reckless
  • Will not understand risk – reward dynamics
  • Do not take accountability for their actions and results
  • Eventually be left unprepared for the future – it is a tough world out there!

Does this mean it is fine NOT to back up our team all the time? Absolutely NO. There will be times when the team needs the leader to back them up to the hilt, particularly when they have put in their best effort but could not achieve expected results due to factors beyond their control.

Teams have to make several decisions every day being fully aware that there is risk involved in each one of them and that they can be judged the wrong way if desired results are not delivered. Failure to back them up when required or reluctance to pick up the battle during critical times will result in the leader losing trust of the team.

So, what can a leader do? Coach people on the basics, let them figure the rest on their own, let them learn through their mistakes and get strong in the process. All of this will build a good team and leadership – continue challenging them and pushing the limits to make them stronger. But when the need arises, step in and support them!

Ultimately, it all boils down to what the situation demands and leaders should use their judgment and decide what should be done – let the team be on their own vs. push them hard vs. step in to support.

Thinking, fast and slow

Posted by Santh

I have read several thought provoking books but this one by Nobel prize winner Daniel Kahneman gives insights into our very own thought process itself. We keep hearing about stepping back to rethink and are encouraged to “think through” before acting – this book explains why they are required.

All my life, I was under the impression that intuition is a talent and a gift. After reading this book, I realized that we should be careful about our intuition and that common sense typically produces ordinary results!

My biggest learning from this book is that there are two systems that help us think and make decisions:

  • System 1 – the fast paced “automatic operation” or “intuitive thought” driven by amygdala, a primitive part of our brain.
  • System 2 – relatively slow paced “controlled operation” or “deliberate thought” driven by neo-cortex, the most distinctively human feature of our brain.

While invoking system 2 for any decision will ensure thorough analysis and reduce mistakes, we may not always have the luxury of time and energy required for it. So, we will have to rely on intuition for a number of day to day decisions. And this is where understanding the two types of intuition comes in handy.

  • Expert intuition: Thousands of hours of practice leads to expertise – Malcom Gladwell’s “Outliers” explains this well through the 10,000 hour rule. While this rule is contested by some, it is still a good framework for understanding expertise. Now, any situation where we need to make a decision will invariably provide a cue that an expert will sub-consciously detect. This cue gives the expert access to information stored in memory and the information provides the answer. Expert intuition is just recognition!
  • Heuristic intuition: When faced with a difficult question, we often substitute the original question with an easier one without noticing the substitution. The resulting easier question will be one for which we readily have an answer, which will invariably be based on our biases. I have observed many leaders form “perceptions” about people and now I understand it should be because of their heuristic intuition!

Whenever I have an intuition or gut feel nowadays, I ask myself if this is due to expert intuition or if this is influenced by heuristics or biases. Expert intuition is good – in fact, what is the point of earning expertise through hard practice if we are not going to use it! But heuristic intuition is bad, leading to bad decisions that leaders in particular should avoid as it can adversely impact their people! So, the healthy alternate is switch to slower, more deliberate and effortful form of thinking whenever we suspect heuristic intuition.

This book is a beauty and took more than a couple of months for a slow reader like me to complete. It will be a long blog post and will take several hours for me to write about everything I learnt. So, I will summarize with some quick pointers to key concepts:

  • Law of least effort – if there are several ways of achieving the same goal, we will eventually gravitate to the least demanding course of action. Laziness is built deep into out nature.
  • Cognitive Ease – when we are in a good mood, we are likely to be casual and superficial in our thinking. Don’t get “carried away”!
  • Jumping to conclusions is efficient if the conclusions are likely to be correct and the costs of an occasional mistake is acceptable, and if the jump saves much time and effort. It is risky when the situation is unfamiliar and the stakes are high.
  • The law of small numbers – statistics can help when the sample size is large enough and comprehensively representative. Conclusions made based on small numbers will not be prudent as they assume a simpler world than reality and ignore that many facts are due to “chance”.
  • Regression to the mean – whenever someone produces extraordinary and outstanding results, an element of chance is likely to be one of the reasons. Over a period of time, the results will converge towards the average.
  • Illusion of understanding – hindsight information is often misunderstood as prophetic knowledge. A number of books that analyze past events and postulate a recipe for future success have fallen flat over a period of time. A classic example will be “Build to last” – the gap in corporate profitability and stock returns between the outstanding and the less successful firms studied in this book shrank to almost nothing subsequently! How about this? – the CEO of a successful company is likely to be called flexible, methodical and decisive. If the firm slips the next year, the same executive will be called confused, rigid and authoritarian! The same actions can be conveniently depicted in positive or negative terms creating an illusion of profound understanding of the presenter!
  • Prospect theory, loss aversion & the endowment effect – These are profound concepts:
    • Reference points exist – A specific amount of money does not have the same value for everyone. A person earning $1000 a month will be a lot more excited about $100 than someone who earns $10,000 a month. This explains why hikes are measured in % rather than absolute amounts!
    • Losses loom larger than gains – we give up on gains more readily than incur losses. A reason why people cling on to losing propositions for long and end of losing even more rather than exit early to cut losses!
    • A luxury becomes a necessity over a period of time as we get used to it.

There is a lot more to read and learn from this book, which is currently #1 best seller under Cognitive Psychology eTextbooks in Amazon. I have just provided an appetizer here and the book will be the main course. And I promise the main course will be much better than the appetizer. Go for it!

Iberian Peninsula

Posted by Santh

I was looking for a good destination to spend some time during the summer of 2018 and surveyed different European regions. Finally settled on the Iberian Peninsula, the land of Visigoths and Moorish conquests as I had read from Edward Gibbon’s classic on the decline of Roman empire and “The Crusades” by Thomas Asbridge. The plan was to spend six days in Spain covering Madrid, Valencia and Barcelona on a group tour and three days at Portugal covering Lisbon and Sintra on my own.

Day 1 – Travel to Madrid. It was a tiring 14 hour journey from Hyderabad including a couple of hours at Dubai. Got some good night sleep at a Novotel near Madrid airport on arrival and prepared for the long tour ahead!

Day 2 – Madrid:

I wanted to start the day with my usual morning run and did not have to look very far for a good place. Google maps showed a Juan Carlos Park beside the hotel and I was there right when it opened at 7AM. The large park beat my expectations and I could not cover the entire park with my 6 Km run. But could not do more as I had to get back to the airport and meet with the rest of the group to start on the Spectacular Spain tour!

    

After checking into a hotel at a south western suburb (Leganes), we started on Madrid city tour. We met the guide at Plaza Espana who talked about Spanish pride around Don Quixote and took us on a panoramic bus tour of Madrid covering the Bull Ring among other places.

      

We finally spent some time at the Royal Palace and wrapped up the day after dinner at a nice Indian restaurant.

  

Day 3: Madrid

One aspect I love about Europe and the US is the pleasant weather during summer and the running trails that show up even at the remotest of places. While the hotel at Leganes was in the middle of an industrial estate where you would not expect a running trail, Google Maps showed a trail about one km away. I followed the map and was surprised to find a lovely trail where you would least expect it! A 5 Km run prepared me for the long day ahead.

  

We started on Madrid city tour with the exciting news that Real Madrid has won the Champions League the previous evening. What a day to be in a football crazy city the day after they won a big cup! It was a great feeling seeing the celebration all around but that also meant extensive street closures and cancelation of night tour of the city.

We started with the historic Atocha station, Prada Museum, spent a couple of hours walking around Retiro Park and clicking some pictures of monuments around.

                

We then went to the Santiago Bernabéu Stadium, that was getting decked up for the Real Madrid team to arrive later that afternoon for the big celebration for Champions League! It was a great feeling to visit on that special day!

      

After a short visit to the Egyptian temple that was reassembled at Madrid, we went on a walking tour along the old city shopping arcades covering Gran Via, Sol, Plaza Mayor and returned to Plaza Espana to wrap up the day and go back to out hotel.

          

Day 4: Valencia

Started day 3 with a run along the same trail as the day before and embarked on the journey towards Valencia – it was a 5 hour drive with a short break enroute.

      

Went on a short stroll along the vegetable farms near the hotel we checked-in and got a glimpse of rural Europe for the first time! Felt very much like India!!! I noticed that most of the shops were closed and it was around 2:30PM. I told myself that it should be siesta time and got to see it in action for the first time!

    

We then went on Valencia city tour. The guide walked us through how Valencia was settled first by early tribes, followed by Romans and Goths, all the way to modern times. As we listened to him standing next to one of the surviving city gates (Torres de Serranos), he pointed to the adjacent park with a few bridges and said it is river Turia. It was interesting to learn how Valencia had changed course of the river to city outskirts after a devastating flood in 1957!

      

We then walked through the narrow alleys of the old city listening about the royal palace, Spanish national dish paella, and spent some time at the Basilica, Cathedral and the fresh food market.

                      

We wrapped up the old city walking tour and went to the new city where the imposing Opera and Oceanografic are located.

    

Day 5: Valencia

Valencia is on Mediterranean coast and it was a pity that the beach was not in our tour itinerary. So, I decided to do a long run to the beach in the morning. It turned out to be a 10K run but well worth it running along the farms again and also along the Mediterranean for a few kms.

              

We then spent half a day at Oceanografic, supposedly one of the largest aquariums in the world. It was interesting to see some exotic aminals, particularly from the polar regions, but nothing beyond to rave about. After lunch, it was time to drive up to Barcelona, the capital of Catalonia!

After a quick dinner, we went to the famous Flamingo show at Barcelona. For folks who were looking for flamingoes to dance, it was a disappointment. It was just a couple of agile and nimble dancers tapping their feet to some fast music, by no means an easy one. And with a few expert singers using their hands and vocal chords to create a variety of sounds, it was a great show indeed!

Day 6: Barcelona

As will be the case with all group tours at all locations, we stayed at one of the suburbs of Barcelona but I still managed to find a small park for my morning run. It was a bit of a hilly terrain and had to deal with some elevation during the short morning run of 3 km.

    

After breakfast, it was time for Barcelona city tour. If you were from anywhere else in the world, you might not have heard about Antoni Gaudi. But at Barcelona, it feels like the entire city belongs to him even almost 100 years after he died. His distinct architecture that emphasized on natural shapes and shunned other geometrical ones like straight lines and sharp corners has created a number of unique buildings in Barcelona. The fact that the Barcelona cathedral (La Sagrada Familia) continues to be built long after his death and expected to complete in 2026 to commemorate his 100th death anniversary and become the tallest religious structure in Europe speaks volumes for the influence he continues to have on the city!

    

We then proceeded to Parc Guell, another masterpiece that was designed as a villa community to the rich ended up becoming a park as the location was far from the city by 100 years back standards.

          

It was now time for us to visit the Mediterranean beach resort – Costa Brava! I have seen many beaches in my life but this one was among the most amazing of them. We were there on a perfect day for beach goers, pleasant sunny day and the crowds did not disappoint. I didn’t spend much time on the beach though. I found a trail along the beach meandering through the rocky terrain along the beach and it was a beautiful trek for about two hours. It was a privilege to enjoy some of the most spectacular views!

                  

Day 7: Barcelona

It was the last day of the Spain leg and I was too exhausted for a morning run. So, after a relaxed breakfast, we packed our bags and went to the Olympic quarter of Barcelona. We took some pictures at the stadia built for 1992 Olympics and went to the Montjuïc Castle. While it was not an imposing castle, the events there during Spanish civil war were quite intriguing.

                          

After a quick lunch, we went to La Rambla and the Gothic quarter of Barcelona for a stroll along the historic streets and shopping areas!

                

It was time to bid adieu to Spain and fly to Portugal! The view of Lisbon from the plane as we landed was fantastic with well maintained buildings of predominantly white walls and red tiled roof! We arrived at Lisbon late in the evening and could feel a distinct change in the climate and culture!

Day 8: Lisbon

We stayed at a Marriot near the University of Lisbon and Santa Maria Hospital and went on a morning run around these areas.

      

We then began our Lisbon city tour with the historic Alfama district. The old buildings with Moorish architecture and narrow alleys took us to a different era. We walked through Alfama streets for about an hour and also caught the great sight of Tram 28 slowing moving through the streets.

        

We then proceeded to one of the most historic places in Europe, Belem Tower at the mouth of River Tagus where it joins the Atlantic Ocean. This is the place from where the great voyages to the East, including Vasco Da Gama’s journey to India originated. Also walked to the nearby Padrão dos Descobrimentos, another waterfront monument opened in 1960 to mark 500 years since Henry the Navigator’s death.

          

The next stop was the majestic Jerónimos Monastery. The long line for tickets at Belem Tower and Monastery was annoying and as we neared the counter, it turned to surprise to see the agents were working at a leisurely pace. No one seems to be concerned at the inefficiency and it appeared that every one involved was happy to wait!

        

That wrapped up the itinerary with the tour guide and I asked him to drop us back at Alfama to stroll along the historic district. And it was easily the best part of the city!

              

The guide had showed us the George castle from a distance and said it will close around 6PM. It took a while to figure out its entrance despite directions from Google Maps and reminded that there is more work to be done by Google on their maps, particularly on hilly terrain where roads could potentially be layered one above another as they wind up the hills! It was a little past 6PM when we reached the castle and luckily for us, it was scheduled to be open till 9PM during summer. This 11th-century, hilltop Moorish castle & royal residence with palace ruins & archaeological museum was a breathtaking place and would have been a shame if we missed it! Finally, we had dinner at an Indian restaurant and took a cab back to the hotel.

          

Day 9: Sintra & Cascais

We were into the final day of our tour and the destination for the day was one that I had researched and selected over what the travel agency had originally proposed. We set off early in the morning towards the famous hill station near Lisbon – Sintra. As we neared the Palace of Pena at Sintra, the temperature and visibility dropped significantly with the entire area covered with fog. It looked like we entered the clouds and among them stood the beautiful Pena Palace! I was among the most beautiful places we experienced in the tour. We walked inside the palace with an audio guide in hand, listening to the impressive history of the place!

                    

After spending a couple of hours at the palace, we proceeded to Quinta da Regaleira, a park with winding walking trails amid the hills.

                          

After a quick lunch, we headed to the Western most point of Continental Europe – Cabo Da Roca. It is a very windy place in the middle of nowhere! It felt like the wind will lift me all the way into the Atlantic Ocean!!!

        

We then drove along the Atlantic Coast back to Lisbon, but not before covering a bit of Cascais – the beach resort beside Lisbon. After a brief stop at the Lisbon Basilica, I asked the guide to drop us off at Liberdade Avenue. It is the upmarket shopping avenue at Lisbon and wrapped up the day with a few pictures of magnificent statues along the avenue.

            

Day 10: Back to India!

It was time to bid adieu to the Iberian peninsula and head back home. I have now covered several places at South Europe and can see one thing in common – it is a region where people take pride in their glorious past and preserve it well while greeting you with great hospitality!